Friday, January 6, 2017

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday lower.
  • ES pivot 2261.42.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Last night I wrote that "we could see a topping candle on Thursday, maybe a hanging man".  Well check it out - on Thursday the Dow dropped 43 points on a red candle that's close enough to a hanging man for me.  (OK, it has a teensy little upper shadow, but if you wait for a perfect candle, you're going to miss a lot of patterns).  And so the quest for the elusive 20K mark goes on.  With a reversal candle on the print, it's not looking good for Friday.  Or is it?  Only the charts an tell, so let's take a gander.
Dow, daily

The technicals

The VIX:  And also last night I wrote of the VIX "further downside is limited".  And indeed on Thursday the VIX fell just 1.52% on a tall red spinning top.  That's a reversal sign, though admittedly not a particularly great one.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:28 AM EST with ES down 0.06%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2260.83 to 2261.42.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot, though now not by much.  Still, this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    2      0       1           0       1.000     179

     And the winner is...

With the Dow unable to capitalize on Tuesday's gains and the trans  falling even more, it's not looking all that hot tonight.  The dollar's moving lower, along with copper.  I note too that the TLT has been rallying for a week now and is picking up steam.  And ES seems to be confirming Wednesday's doji with a lackluster fade in the overnight so far.  It's definitely a different tone than we've seen the past few nights so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Friday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.