Friday, November 11, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher only if ES stays above its pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 2165.17.  Breaking above is bullish, below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader::no trade tonight

On Thursday the Dow continued its post-election tear, up another 218 making it four in a row now and its biggest winning streak of the year so far, as well as setting another record high.  Yowza!  How long can this go on?  The charts will tell us  if we only open our minds and embrace the Zen.  So let's take a look and see what's up ... or down on Friday as we close out the first week of November.

The technicals

The VIX:  Thursday was one of those odd days where the VIX was up along with the rest of the market, putting in a 2.5% advance on a green spinning top that retested its 200 day MA.  Indicators are now nearly oversold so this is at least a reversal warning for the market.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:36 AM EST with ES down 0.10%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rockets from 2118.50 to 2165.17.  That's enough to catch up to ES and leaves it sitting exactly on top of its new pivot so this indicator predicts nothing tonight.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314

November   2      1       4           0       0.667     484

    And the winner is...

The market has had quite a four day run but things are starting to look rather overbought.  The Dow amazingly traded entirely above its upper BB.  The VIX has also thrown a reversal sign.  But given the recent squirreliness in the market, rather than going outright bearish I'm going to try a conditional call.  This is apt since ES is right on its new pivot as I write.  If ES breaks above its pivot and remains there by mid-morning Friday, we'll close higher.  But if it breaks lower and stays there instead, we close lower.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.