Friday, September 2, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2166.42.  Waiting for a break either higher or lower.
  • Next week  bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

We finally made a market direction call last night and while the Dow took off going in entirely the wrong way out the gate, it finally managed to wobble its way just back above water far enough for me to claim victory - though it was admittedly a close call.  We're back to small open-close ranges as everyone waits for the jobs numbers on Friday.

Reminder, I'll be on a road trip next week and it's a holiday-shortened week anyway.  I might be able to sneak in one post on Monday night but other than than, we're gone until September 11th.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:18 AM EDT with ES down 0.06%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2168.42 to 2166.42.  That once again leaves ES sitting right on top of its new pivot so this indicator is neutral tonight.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120

September  1      0       0           0       1.000      18

     And the winner is...

Friday is shaping up to be one of those news-driven days as a bunch of jobs numbers hit the tape before the open.  And they're of more than usual interest this time because it's widely considered that the Fed will be using that data to determine whether or not to move on interest rates.  For the record, I don't think the jobs numbers will be so hot and I also don't think the Fed is raising rates in September.  But because of the uncertainty around the whole thing, I'm just going to call Friday, well uncertain.  There's no point running detailed charts ahead of something like this.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night after next (that's the 11th).

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.