Friday, August 26, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2172.75.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Well it was yet another small movement day on Thursday with the Dow dropping all of 33 points.  However, we're finally starting to see something of a trend here as we now have three days of lower highs and lower lows. But the moves are so small it's really hard to make much out of them.  We take a look at the charts to see if there's any clue as to Friday's direction or if it's just another exercise in futility.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:16 AM EDT with ES up 0.02%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2177.17 to 2172.75.  But that small move was enough to put ES back above its new pivot so now this indicator is back to bullish


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       4           0       0.000     120

     And the winner is...

The overall impression last night looked bearish to me, though not enough to make it an official call.  Tonight things are even less clear as this lackluster trendless action just seems to go on and on.  There are some reversal signs on the charts but they're not definite enough to warrant a call.  Therefore once again I have to call Friday uncertain.  That's all she barely wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.