Friday, July 1, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2054.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Well well.  I guess I let the historical implcations of the last day of June plus lower futures overnight ge tthe better of me in the face of decidedly bullish charts last night.  I called Thursday uncertain but it turns out the Dow put in a third green marubozu in a row for a classic three white soldiers pattern to finish off the month, the quarter and the first half of 2016 in style.

We have now essentially completely erased the entire Brexit Bust so maybe everyone can stop talking about this nonsense for a while.  Meanwhile it's time for another Night Owl Lite night.  It's good timing too because there's really not too much different in tonight's charts from last night.  Everything that looked bullish then remains so tonight as we make our way to July.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:22 AM EDT with ES down 0.13%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2054.75 to 2079.33.  ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator just continues bullish, though not as much as last night.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

     And the winner is...

The first day of most months is bullish and July is no exception.  However, the VIX has fallen considerably from its peak last Friday and the futures are currently guiding lower.  Also, the market has had a fantastic three day run that has brought us right back to where we were a week ago and near Dow resistance around 18,000.  This means whatever short-covering's been going on should be about done now and everybody who didn't get in the market the past three days is going to be cautious about doing it now when the remaining upside seems limited.  But we still have no real bearish candles anywhere so I can't call the market lower.  Also, Friday is a pre-holiday day and I'm sure a lot of traders will be leaving early for their pilgrimage to the Hamptons, Bar Harbor or Barbados.  Which all leaves us in sort of the same quandary as last night so I'm afraid I'm just going to have to punt again and call Friday uncertain.

That's al she wrote.  See you again Monday night.  I'll probably be taking a few days off next week in honor of the Fourth

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.