Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2259.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

The Dow just squeaked out another win on Monday to make it five in a row and keep the rally alive, though just barely.  I didn't feel that good about calling Monday higher last night and this result bears that out, particularly given that both the SPX and Nasdaq lost ground on Monday.  Let's look ahead to Tuesday as we continue the most important week of the month with a big Fed decision looming (even if it seems like a foregone conclusion).

The technicals

The VIX:  After looking ready to move lower last night the VIX instead turned right around and gained 7.57% on Monday to bring us just about back to where we were last Thursday.  But that still leaves the sub-13 area as resistance.  Of course the indicators are only just barely off oversold so there might be enough oomph here for a further advance on Tuesday.  Hmmm...

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:23 AM EST with ES up 0.04%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises yet again from 2255.42 to 2259.50.   But for the first time in a while now ES is back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304

August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120

September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314

November   4      4       5           3       0.636     463

December   3      1       4           0       0.750      81

     And the winner is...

The tide sure looks like it's running out tonight - a tiny advance in the Dow, a doji and bearish stochastic crossover on the SPX, a further non-trivial loss in the trans, a move higher in the VIX  And ES put in a red spinning top as a dark cloud cover on Monday, fell out of a steep rising RTC for a bearish setup and just formed a new bearish stochastic crossover.  And oil put in a big gap-up inverted hammer on Monday. 

So the net impression is bearish.  The only thing is that it isn't showing in the futures just yet as of this writing.  But with the majority of the evidence looking bearish I'm going to have to go out on a limb and call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.