Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2164.25.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Well I called last Friday lower and so naturally the market went higher.  Doh!  It's been pointed out to me that I might as well flip a coin and as you can see from the stats below I could have saved myself a lot of effort and arrived at exactly the same result.  I guess I let myself get a little carried away by Thursday's move lower, thinking it was the break I'd been waiting for.

In retrospect, nah, on Friday we popped right back into the middle of a week's worth of completely indeterminate action.  What looked like a decent evening star turned out to be a false alarm.  Turns out I don't even have time for a detailed chart rundown tonight but that doesn't seem to be making much difference lately anyway.

The technicals

ES, daily

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:33 AM EDT with ES down 0.06%. Right now, I see a bearish stick sandwich on this chart, but the classical candlestick patterns haven't been working very well lately.  Take a look at the chart and see what you think.  If this plays out, we're looking at lower on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2160.58 to 2164.25.  That puts ES above its new pivot so this indicator flips right back to bullish.







Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       3      5       4           2       0.500    -312

     And the winner is...

At this point we are right back to the record high levels we were at last week  And every time I thought we were due for a pullback, we didn't get one.  What's the old saying, fool me once, fool me twice?  Well how about fool me five times in a row?  And on top of that, this is another Fed week so we can expect the usual vague hand-sitting before the announcement.  So not feeling like getting fooled again in the face of charts that aren't particularly clear, to me anyway, I'm just going to call Monday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.