Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2091.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

As expected, Monday moved lower to start off August in pretty typical fashion.  Not much to see here so we turn our attention right towards Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Three strikes and yer out.  After failing to retake the 200 day MA three days running, the Dow finally gave up the ghost on Monday and fell out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup on a red hammerish thing and a stochastic ever so close to a bearish crossover.  Net net, I don't think the selling's over.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that "I'd say the VIX is going higher Any Day Now".  And we didn't have long to wait as the VIX rose 3.63% on Monday to complete a bullish morning star.  It also bent the stochastic around nicely to just short of a bullish crossover.  Oh, and despite a red spinning top it was also an exit of the descending RTC for a bullish crossover.  So all in all I'd again have to say there's more upside left here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:13 AM EDT with ES down  0.07% .  Last night I wrote that "I'd be cautious about going long at this point".  Good thing too because ES fell right back to 2091 on Monday on a tall lopsided red spinning top.  The overnight is continuing lower thus forming a bearish stochastic crossover meaning that there's still nothing bullish about this chart.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2101.00 to 2091.17.  Tonight ES remains below its new pivot, though not by much.  But that still leaves this indicator bearish - for the time being.


Dollar index:  I refused to call the dollar last night but Monday's gap-up spinning top provided some clarity with a completed morning star.  Indicators are not yet overbought so all other things being equal it looks like there's more upside left here.

Euro:  Last night I wrote that "I'd guess the next move is lower on Monday".  Good guess too with the euro right back down to 1.0954.  It was a classic dark cloud cover and the overnight is continuing lower.  The stochastic has begun curving around for a bullish crossover but we're not there yet.  Looks like there's at least one more day lower in store before the reversal.

Transportation: The trans are now range-bound, unable to make any headway past 8428 but not dropping much lower either.  Indicators have now hit overbought and we have a spinning top but that requires confirmation.  So until I get it, I still can't call this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August     1      0       0           0       1.000     92

     And the winner is...

Tonight looks a lot like last night with a bunch of bearish technical signs on the charts.  I also note that oil is back in positive correlation with the market and oil is tanking.  And Dr. Copper has been feeling ill for some time now.  Therefore it appears that the logical course of action is to call Tuesday lower again.

Single Stock Trader

Despite two reversal candles in a row, VZ did not move lower on Monday, instead posting a small gain on, yes, another reversal candle, this one a large red hammer.  Either way, nothing here suggests a good entry point so we let it pass once again.