Thursday, January 19, 2017

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2263.50.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Recap

So last night I called Wednesday higher.  Now both the Nasdaq and the SPX did in fact finish higher but unfortunately my call is for the Dow and that sadly ended lower - by all of 22 points.  So that's a miss, though a small one as the Dow now extends its losing streak to four.  But it's the third reversal candle in a row - two spinning tops and a hammer and the third day in a row we've tested the lower BB.  Thing is, it's a rather unusual week, being the first op-ex of the year plus a presidential inauguration.  Let's see what the charts have to say about that, because that's the only thing that matters, not the Sore Loser Brigades converging on Washington.  Or the Moneyed Elite freezing their butts off in Davos.  There are better places to ski in Switzerland anyway.
 
The technicals

The VIX:  Well it just goes to show ya.  I was figuring a move lower in the VIX but on Wednesday it took a 6% jump for a bullish engulfing candle that sent me evening star theory packing.  Just like the Spanish Inquisition, I wasn't expecting that  But now the VIX is overbought but with a rising stochastic.  Hmmm - on balance at this point I have to say that there could be more upside left.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:30 AM EST with ES down 0.02%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2263.50 to 2264.42.  ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      3       3           0       0.625     170


     And the winner is...

We're clearly mired in another one of these long strings of slow moving small range days like we saw for weeks on end back last summer and fall.  There is little point in making any calls on tomorrow's close in such an environment, particularly with two big events coming up this week.  For what it's worth, the Dow looks like it might have bottomed but there's not much support for that on the other charts.  So I guess all that leaves is to call Thursday uncertain.  I don't think we'll leave a lot on the table.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.